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Tropical Storm BLAS


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE JUL 13 2004
 
BLAS IS STRENGTHENING.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 01Z CONTAINED 50 KT
VECTORS BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE...AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MOST
RECENT 3.0 DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS 50 KT.  OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BEEN INCREASING MARKEDLY NEAR OR OVER THE CENTER AND DECREASING
ELSEWHERE.  THIS EVOLUTION WOULD FAVOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IN
THE SHORT TERM.  BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE BRING BLAS TO
JUST SHY OF HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT...BUT IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT BLAS
WILL BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS IN 24 HOURS
AND BEGINS TO DECAY.  

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/14.  THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE
IS CURRENTLY THE MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES.  THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BLAS...ALTHOUGH
THE 00Z UKMET STILL FAVORS THIS SCENARIO AND CONSEQUENTLY IS MUCH
SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH THAN THE OTHER MODELS.  CONSIDERING THAT
THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY MAY STILL BE TOO STRONG WITH THE SECOND
SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN LIES ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GUNA DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...AND IS JUST A
LITTLE BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED ON THE 01Z
QUIKSCAT PASS...ALTHOUGH THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE CONVECTION NOTED
IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE RADII MAY SOON BEGIN
TO CONTRACT.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0900Z 17.5N 109.6W    50 KT
 12HR VT     13/1800Z 18.9N 111.3W    60 KT
 24HR VT     14/0600Z 20.4N 113.8W    60 KT
 36HR VT     14/1800Z 21.4N 116.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     15/0600Z 22.0N 118.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     16/0600Z 23.0N 121.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     17/0600Z 23.5N 125.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     18/0600Z 23.5N 128.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 13-Jul-2004 08:32:21 UTC