ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON JUL 12 2004 A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED CONSIDERABLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR ITS CENTER THIS MORNING AND THIS SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER IS RATHER UNCERTAIN AS IT IS OBSCURED BY THE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH THE SUGGESTION OF A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AFTER DAY FOUR. THIS MOTION IS CONTROLLED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THAT IS FORECAST TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE GFS AND OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INTRODUCE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK BY DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONES BOTH EAST AND WEST OF THIS DEPRESSION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF INTERACTION. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL ABOUT 48 HOURS WHEN THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER SSTS LESS THAN 26 DEGREES CENTIGRADE. THE SHIPS MODEL PEAKS AT 49 KNOTS AT 48 HOURS WHILE THE GFDL TAKES THE WIND TO 55 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR THE WIND TO PEAK AT 50 KNOTS AT 36 AND 48 HOURS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 14.8N 105.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 15.7N 107.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 17.0N 109.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 19.0N 112.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 20.5N 114.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 15/1200Z 23.0N 118.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 16/1200Z 24.0N 121.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 17/1200Z 24.0N 124.0W 25 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 12-Jul-2004 14:42:20 UTC