Tropical Depression TWO-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT JUL 03 2004

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E IS CURRENTLY GENERATING SMALL BURSTS OF
CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 25 KT FROM
AFWA.  SHIP PCER HAS BEEN PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE OF
THE CYCLONE...REPORTING WINDS 10 KT OR LESS WITH A LOWEST REPORTED
PRESSURE OF 1009.7 MB.  THIS IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A RECENT
SSM/I OVERPASS.  BASED ON ALL THE ABOVE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 25 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/10.  THE CYCLONE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...AND THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING SHOULD MOVE THE
SYSTEM WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.

THE DEPRESSION IS NOW WELL NORTH OF THE 26C ISOTHERM AND SHOULD
WEAKEN FROM HERE ON.  SOME BURSTS OF CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER 12-24 HR...AFTER WHICH THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT
LOW.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL CALL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE BEFORE
72 HR...SO THE THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS IN
HANGING ON TO IT THAT LONG.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0900Z 17.4N 122.6W    25 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 17.5N 124.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 17.5N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 17.4N 128.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 17.3N 130.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     06/0600Z 17.0N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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