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Tropical Depression TWO-E (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI JUL 02 2004
 
THE DEPRESSION IS SHEARED. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE INTENSITY REMAINS
AT 25 KNOTS BUT DO NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER GUSTS
IN CONVECTIVE CELLS. BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD
INCREASINGLY COOL WATERS...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. THE
DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BE A SHORT EVENT AND SHOULD BECOME A REMANT
LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR LESS.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SHIPS...GFDL
AND GLOBAL MODELS.
 
BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/08. AS THE DEPRESSION
WEAKENS...IT SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW MID TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
DEPRESSION SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY BEING STUDIED
EXTENSIVELY BY THE NORTH AMERICAN MOONSOON EXPERIMENT....KNOWN AS
NAME.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/2100Z 17.2N 120.6W    25 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 17.5N 121.8W    25 KT
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 17.5N 123.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 17.5N 125.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 17.5N 127.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 17.5N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
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