ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON MAY 24 2004 A FEW CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION BRIEFLY REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM MAY GENERATE SOME MORE INTERMITTENT AND ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION BUT IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH A STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN 25 DEG C. AGATHA'S HEADING HAS TURNED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND THE MOTION IS NOW AROUND 315/05. THERE IS A LOT OF DIVERSITY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AS STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT WELL DEFINED. AS OF THE MOMENT...THE CYCLONE IS NOT FOLLOWING THE NORTHWARD TRACK INDICATED BY THE GFS AND U.K. MET OFFICE MODELS. PERHAPS THERE IS A LITTLE MORE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FROM THE SOUTHEAST THAN DESCRIBED BY THESE MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...HOWEVER LITTLE OVERALL MOTION OF THE DISSIPATING SYSTEM IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 19.0N 111.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 19.4N 111.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 25/0600Z 19.7N 112.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 25/1800Z 19.9N 112.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 26/0600Z 20.0N 112.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 27/0600Z 20.0N 112.5W 15 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Jul-2004 17:31:57 UTC