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Tropical Storm AGATHA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON MAY 24 2004

A FEW CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION BRIEFLY REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER
OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM MAY GENERATE SOME MORE INTERMITTENT
AND ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION BUT IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES THROUGH A STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND OVER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN 25 DEG C.

AGATHA'S HEADING HAS TURNED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND THE MOTION IS
NOW AROUND 315/05.  THERE IS A LOT OF DIVERSITY IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE AS STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT WELL DEFINED.  AS OF THE
MOMENT...THE CYCLONE IS NOT FOLLOWING THE NORTHWARD TRACK INDICATED
BY THE GFS AND U.K. MET OFFICE MODELS.  PERHAPS THERE IS A LITTLE
MORE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FROM THE SOUTHEAST THAN DESCRIBED BY THESE
MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO
THE WEST BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...HOWEVER
LITTLE OVERALL MOTION OF THE DISSIPATING SYSTEM IS FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0900Z 19.0N 111.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 19.4N 111.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 19.7N 112.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 19.9N 112.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     26/0600Z 20.0N 112.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     27/0600Z 20.0N 112.5W    15 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Jul-2004 17:31:57 UTC