ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN MAY 23 2004 THE CENTER OF AGATHA IS NOT APPARENT IN VISIBLE OR INFRARED IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THE MOTION HAS SLOWED OR EVEN STALLED. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/3. DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND SHAPELESS...AND WESTERLY SHEAR IS EVIDENT OVER THE SYSTEM. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 40 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME RATHER DIVERSE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NOGAPS TURNS AGATHA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER ABOUT 12 HOURS...WHILE THE GFS TRACK IS NORTH THEN NORTHWESTWARD. BOTH THE UKMET AND GFDL TAKE THE CYCLONE NORTH AND THEN EASTWARD. GIVEN THE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THE ULTIMATE TRACK WILL DEPEND TO SOME EXTENT ON HOW MUCH DEEP CONVECTION AND VERTICAL CONTINUITY AGATHA CAN MAINTAIN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS GUIDANCE. AGATHA IS OVER 26C SSTS AND HEADED...ALBEIT SLOWLY...FOR COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. A GRADUAL SPINDOWN IS THEREFORE EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. AGATHA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW WITHIN 48-72 HOURS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 18.3N 110.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 18.9N 110.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 19.5N 110.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 19.8N 110.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 20.0N 110.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 26/1800Z 20.5N 111.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 27/1800Z 20.8N 111.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 28/1800Z 21.0N 112.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Jul-2004 17:31:57 UTC