ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SAT MAY 22 2004 ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION HAS CONTINUED. SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. AGATHA HAS A DECENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND THERE IS STILL SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION BEFORE COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS BEGIN TO EXERT AN INFLUENCE. VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...NECESSITATING SOME NORTHWARD RELOCATION FOR THIS PACKAGE. ALSO...THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT OF THAT FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES TO BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THAT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A COLLAPSE IN THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW BY AROUND 48 HOURS. SINCE AGATHA IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AROUND THAT TIME...AND RESPONDING MAINLY TO LOW/MID-LEVEL STEERING...THE FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE MOVEMENT OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 16.9N 109.7W 40 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 17.6N 110.2W 45 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 18.3N 110.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 18.8N 111.1W 45 KT 48HR VT 24/1800Z 19.2N 111.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 25/1800Z 19.5N 112.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 26/1800Z 19.5N 112.0W 25 KT 120HR VT 27/1800Z 19.5N 112.0W 25 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Jul-2004 17:31:57 UTC