Tropical Storm AGATHA

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TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT MAY 22 2004

ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN ORGANIZATION HAS CONTINUED.  SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.
AGATHA HAS A DECENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND THERE IS STILL
SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION BEFORE COOLER WATERS
AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS BEGIN TO EXERT AN INFLUENCE. 

VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS A LITTLE TO
THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...NECESSITATING SOME NORTHWARD
RELOCATION FOR THIS PACKAGE.  ALSO...THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN
SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT OF THAT FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES TO
BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.  THAT GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A COLLAPSE IN THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW BY
AROUND 48 HOURS.  SINCE AGATHA IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AROUND
THAT TIME...AND RESPONDING MAINLY TO LOW/MID-LEVEL STEERING...THE
FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE MOVEMENT OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/2100Z 16.9N 109.7W    40 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 17.6N 110.2W    45 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 18.3N 110.7W    45 KT
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 18.8N 111.1W    45 KT
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 19.2N 111.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     25/1800Z 19.5N 112.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     26/1800Z 19.5N 112.0W    25 KT
120HR VT     27/1800Z 19.5N 112.0W    25 KT
 
 
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