Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm AGATHA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT MAY 22 2004

ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN ORGANIZATION HAS CONTINUED.  SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.
AGATHA HAS A DECENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND THERE IS STILL
SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION BEFORE COOLER WATERS
AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS BEGIN TO EXERT AN INFLUENCE. 

VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS A LITTLE TO
THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...NECESSITATING SOME NORTHWARD
RELOCATION FOR THIS PACKAGE.  ALSO...THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN
SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT OF THAT FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES TO
BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.  THAT GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A COLLAPSE IN THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW BY
AROUND 48 HOURS.  SINCE AGATHA IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AROUND
THAT TIME...AND RESPONDING MAINLY TO LOW/MID-LEVEL STEERING...THE
FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE MOVEMENT OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/2100Z 16.9N 109.7W    40 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 17.6N 110.2W    45 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 18.3N 110.7W    45 KT
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 18.8N 111.1W    45 KT
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 19.2N 111.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     25/1800Z 19.5N 112.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     26/1800Z 19.5N 112.0W    25 KT
120HR VT     27/1800Z 19.5N 112.0W    25 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Jul-2004 17:31:57 UTC