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Tropical Storm AGATHA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI MAY 21 2004
 
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED SOME DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER THIS EVENING.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE
1.5/2.0/2.0 FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC AND THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09.  THE TRACK MODELS SHOW THE
DEPRESSION TO BE EMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING CURRENT AND THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FOR A RATHER SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
FOR 5 DAYS.
 
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY AGGRESSIVE EVEN THOUGH THERE IS
LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS.  THE SHIP MODEL BRINGS THE
WIND SPEED TO MAXIMUM VALUE OF 42 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE
THE GFDL SHOWS NO CHANGE FOR 5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST IS
A MODEST INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0300Z 14.7N 108.0W    25 KT
 12HR VT     22/1200Z 15.4N 109.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     23/0000Z 16.0N 110.3W    35 KT
 36HR VT     23/1200Z 16.6N 111.2W    35 KT
 48HR VT     24/0000Z 17.1N 112.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     25/0000Z 18.0N 113.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     26/0000Z 18.0N 113.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     27/0000Z 18.0N 113.0W    25 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Jul-2004 17:31:56 UTC