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Tropical Storm OTTO (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST THU DEC 02 2004
 
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE
AND VERTICAL DEPTH NEAR THE CENTER AND IS NOW CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. HOWEVER...DRIFTING BUOY 44623 NEAR THE CENTER
OF OTTO INDICATES THE PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND WAS
995.7 MB AT 05Z. BASED ON THE LOWER CENTRAL PRESSURE AND A DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 FROM TAFB...THE INTENSITY IS
BEING MAINTAINED AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 180/05. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS LESS
DIVERGENT THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE AND IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY MOTION THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE UKMET MODEL REMAINS THE LEFTMOST MODEL AND
TAKES OTTO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE THE GFDL MODEL IS NOW THE
RIGHTMOST MODEL AND MOVES OTTO SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...ALL THE MODELS
AGREE ON WEAK RIDGING CONTINUING TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF OTTO...
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO CONTINUE LOSING LATITUDE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS
CLOSE TO THE CONU AND GUNS CONSENSUS MODELS.
 
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT COUPLED WITH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON OTTO...EVEN THOUGH CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS
ACTUALLY EXPANDED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHILE THE MID-LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DRY OUT
EVEN MORE. AS SUCH...OTTO IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME A
NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS...EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE
WILL BE MOVING OVER WARMER 25-26C SST WATERS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0900Z 29.8N  49.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     02/1800Z 29.0N  49.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     03/0600Z 27.9N  49.1W    30 KT
 36HR VT     03/1800Z 26.8N  48.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     04/0600Z 25.9N  48.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     05/0600Z 24.7N  48.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     06/0600Z 23.5N  48.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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