ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST WED DEC 01 2004 THE MOTION APPEARS TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR PERHAPS A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT. A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERELIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE STORM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RESPOND TO THIS WITH A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...EXCEPT THE UKMET WHICH SHOWS A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OR SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK FORECAST BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS. THERE IS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION...AND WHAT THERE IS IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. HOWEVER THERE IS A 06Z SHIP REPORT OF 50 KT AND 995.1 MB ABOUT 100 N MI NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE SHIP WIND APPEARS TOO HIGH AND THE PRESSURE TOO LOW...SO THE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO A COMPROMISE 45 KT. THE SAME TROUGH REFERRED TO ABOVE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THE WESTERLIES OVER THE STORM AND THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KT IN 48 HOURS AND OVER 40 KT BY 96 HOURS. FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS ADVIORY...THE FORECAST IS FOR WEAKENING AFTER 24 HOURS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 31.9N 50.7W 45 KT 12HR VT 01/1800Z 31.8N 50.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 02/0600Z 31.0N 50.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 02/1800Z 30.0N 49.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 03/0600Z 29.1N 48.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 04/0600Z 27.8N 46.7W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 05/0600Z 27.0N 45.0W 20 KT...REMNAT LOW 120HR VT 06/0600Z 26.5N 43.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 01-Dec-2004 08:13:49 UTC