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Tropical Storm OTTO (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2004
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS BECOME
MORE CONSOLIDATED.  THE DEEP CONVECTION IS RATHER LIMITED...AND SHIP
REPORTS AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD IS STILL
SOMEWHAT BROAD.  HOWEVER MICROWAVE DATA AND CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSES
FROM THE FSU/PSU WEB PAGE SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A WARM CORE.
THUS THE CYCLONE HAS ENOUGH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO JUSTIFY THE
ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.  THE STORM IS
OVER RATHER COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  THEREFORE NO STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE SYSTEM
SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN LATER IN THE PERIOD.
 
CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWARD AROUND 4 KT.  DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE AN EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION TO DEVELOP SOON.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS AND
SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/2100Z 31.8N  51.0W    40 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 32.2N  50.7W    40 KT
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 32.0N  50.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 31.5N  49.3W    40 KT
 48HR VT     02/1800Z 31.0N  48.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     03/1800Z 31.0N  46.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     04/1800Z 31.0N  45.0W    25 KT
120HR VT     05/1800Z 31.0N  43.0W    20 KT
 
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