Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm OTTO


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2004
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS BECOME
MORE CONSOLIDATED.  THE DEEP CONVECTION IS RATHER LIMITED...AND SHIP
REPORTS AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD IS STILL
SOMEWHAT BROAD.  HOWEVER MICROWAVE DATA AND CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSES
FROM THE FSU/PSU WEB PAGE SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A WARM CORE.
THUS THE CYCLONE HAS ENOUGH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO JUSTIFY THE
ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.  THE STORM IS
OVER RATHER COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  THEREFORE NO STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE SYSTEM
SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN LATER IN THE PERIOD.
 
CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWARD AROUND 4 KT.  DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE AN EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION TO DEVELOP SOON.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS AND
SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/2100Z 31.8N  51.0W    40 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 32.2N  50.7W    40 KT
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 32.0N  50.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 31.5N  49.3W    40 KT
 48HR VT     02/1800Z 31.0N  48.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     03/1800Z 31.0N  46.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     04/1800Z 31.0N  45.0W    25 KT
120HR VT     05/1800Z 31.0N  43.0W    20 KT
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 30-Nov-2004 20:33:50 UTC