ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON OCT 11 2004 ...CORRECTED TO SHOW SUBTROPICAL STORM... NICOLE IS STILL GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...STILL INDICATE SUBTROPICAL STATUS. A REPORT FROM THE SHIP KSDF...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KT WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 988 MB. THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING A DISTINCT BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND THEREFORE WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL VERY SOON. NICOLE MAY BECOME ABSORBED BY...OR MERGE WITH...A BAROCLINIC CYCLONE DEVELOPING TO ITS NORTH. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NICOLE COULD MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR A FEW DAYS. SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. LATEST CENTER FIXES ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION. HOWEVER MOST TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES A TURN TO THE LEFT FOLLOWED BY A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 10Z. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 36.0N 61.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 39.4N 62.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 12/1200Z 41.0N 63.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 13/0000Z 42.0N 63.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 13/1200Z 44.0N 62.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 14/1200Z 48.0N 59.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 15/1200Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Oct-2004 14:43:47 UTC