Subtropical Storm NICOLE

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SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004
 
WHILE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...NICOLE REMAINS A
SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL STORM AS INDICATED BY A RECENT PRESSURE
REPORT OF 995 MB FROM BERMUDA. AS IS THE CASE WITH SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONES...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH NICOLE IS DISPLACED WELL
EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...AS THAT BAND PASSED OVER
BERMUDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IT CONTAINED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37-38
KT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT. THEREFORE...AN INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS
BEING MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY. WIND RADII WERE TRIMMED BACK TO
THE WEST AND EXPANDED TO THE EAST BASED ON THE BERMUDA OBSERVATIONS
AND A 10/2244Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/13. NICOLE IS MOVING AROUND THE
EAST SIDE OF A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SOUTHEASTWARD TO SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING
NORTHWARD UP THE EAST SIDE OF AN EVEN DEEPER LOW/TROUGH FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE CAPE COD AREA IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THIS DEVELOPING
FLOW PATTERN SHOULD ACT TO LIFT NICOLE NORTHWARD BY 12-18 HOURS...
AND THEN POSSIBLY HOOK THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE
UPPER-LOW MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE NICOLE SURFACE CIRCULATION IN
24-36H. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS
EVOLVING SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST EAST OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION.
 
NICOLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 36 HOURS...
IF NOT SOONER. HOWEVER...IN THE 36-48 HOUR TIME PERIOD...SIGNIFICANT
UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS AND BAROCLINIC EFFECTS SHOULD KICK IN AS THE
UPPER-LOW BECOMES SUPERIMPOSED ON TOP OF THE RELATIVELY WARMER
LOWER LAYERS OF THE NICOLE CIRCULATION. THE RESULT COULD BE A LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL STORM SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS JUST EAST
OF THE U.S. NEW ENGLAND AREA...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
REMAINS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE WARM GULFSTREAM.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0300Z 33.1N  65.0W    40 KT
 12HR VT     11/1200Z 36.4N  63.7W    45 KT
 24HR VT     12/0000Z 40.3N  63.4W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     12/1200Z 42.3N  63.8W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     13/0000Z 42.3N  65.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     14/0000Z...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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