ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004 ...CORRECTION TO AWIPS AND WMO HEADERS...END IN 5 INSTEAD OF 1... THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR BERMUDA CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANIZED AND IS BEING IDENTIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM. THIS IS BASED ON THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING LOCATED FAR FROM THE CENTER AS SHOWN ON A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT AND ALSO ON THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL COLD LOW OVER THE SURFACE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SET AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT PASS AND A RECENT SHIP REPORT. THE DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTER AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...NICOLE COULD TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE FORECAST IS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING FOR A DAY OR TWO UNTIL THE STORM MERGES WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/13, THE FORECAST TRACK IS MOSTLY NORTHWARD FOR 72 HOURS AS A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVES FROM NORTH AMERICA TO THE ATLANTIC AND CUTS OFF. THE GFS SHOWS NICOLE MERGING WITH THIS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN 48 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NICOLE AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AT 48 HOURS. A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST AFTER 72 HOURS FOLLOWING THE GFS MODEL. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 31.8N 66.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 33.5N 66.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 11/0600Z 36.0N 65.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 11/1800Z 39.0N 63.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 12/0600Z 41.5N 63.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 13/0600Z 43.5N 63.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 14/0600Z 49.0N 59.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 15/0600Z 52.0N 50.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 10-Oct-2004 11:23:49 UTC