Tropical Storm MATTHEW

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TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 09 2004
 
AFTER A PERIOD OF WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
INDICATE THAT MATTHEW HAS REGAINED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. IT IS
ONLY A CHANGE OF 5 KNOTS...WHICH IS WITHIN THE NOISE LEVEL OF
ESTIMATING INTENSITY...BUT IT MAKES THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND A TROPICAL STORM.  LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE
REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 997 MB. SINCE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...I WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING OCCURS AGAIN IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. NEVERTHERLESS...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
ON THE LOUISIANA COAST AS A TROPICAL STORM IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER...THEREFORE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY. IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE WINDS WILL OCCUR MOSTLY IN
GUSTS DURING HEAVY SQUALLS.

GIVING THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE CENTER...THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
AROUND THE EASTERN CIRCULATION OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW OVER
EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS. THEREFORE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS
ANTICIPATED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFDL. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/2100Z 27.3N  91.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     10/0600Z 29.1N  91.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     10/1800Z 31.5N  90.9W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     11/0600Z 33.5N  91.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     11/1800Z 36.0N  91.5W    20 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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