Tropical Storm MATTHEW

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 09 2004
 
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR REMOVED THE CONVECTION FROM THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION AND MATTHEW HAS BECOME AN ELONGATED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS
WITH MOST OF THE WEATHER WITHIN A BAND LOCATED NORTHEAST AND EAST
OF THE CENTER. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DOWGRADED TO A 30-KNOT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BUT I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WINDS REACH TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH AGAIN IN HEAVY SQUALLS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK
MATTHEW THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST...NO STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. HOWEVER...THE GFDL INSISTS
ON INTENSIFYING MATTHEW DESPITE THE SHEAR.

ONCE AGAIN...GLOBAL MODELS HAD THE CORRECT IDEA. MATTHEW IS NOW
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 9 KNOTS...AS INDICATED BY
GLOBAL MODELS...AROUND A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW WHICH IS DEVELOPING
OVER EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS
ANTICIPATED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED WESTWARD IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODELS AND THE
CONSENSUS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL REACH
THE LOUSIANA COAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOST OF THE HEAVY
RAINS AND SQUALLS WILL OCCUR WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE
CENTER. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/1500Z 26.7N  92.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     10/0000Z 28.0N  91.9W    30 KT
 24HR VT     10/1200Z 30.0N  91.3W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     11/0000Z 32.5N  91.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     11/1200Z 34.5N  91.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
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