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Tropical Storm MATTHEW


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT OCT 09 2004

THE LATEST CIMSS WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOWS 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR
OVER THE STORM AND THE PREVIOUSLY IMPRESSIVE CDO FEATURE HAS BEEN
SHEARED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE ASSUMED CENTER LOCATION AND HAS
ALSO DECREASED IN SIZE AND HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY.  THE WIND SPEED
IS REDUCED TO 35 KNOTS AND THIS IS MOST GENEROUS.  I WOULD NEVER
GUESS THAT THERE WAS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM LOOKING AT THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT I WOULD RATHER NOT KILL THE STORM BASED ON
INFRARED IMAGERY.  THE STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AND...
NOT SURPRISINGLY...I AM FORECASTING THAT MATHEW WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN.
 
THERE WAS NO AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE THIS MORNING.  DATA BUOY 42002
REPORTED A WIND OF 320/10 AT 07Z SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTER IS
NORTHEAST OF THE BUOY.  THERE WAS A HINT OF A POORLY DEFINED LOW
CLOUD CENTER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT SUPPORTS THIS.  THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/08.  A DEEP-LAYER MEAN LOW IS FORECAST TO
CUT OFF OVER TEXAS WITHIN 24 HOURS AND THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN
THE STORM NORTHWARD AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY BUT IS STILL A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF A CONSENSUS OF THE
MODELS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0900Z 25.6N  92.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     09/1800Z 26.4N  92.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     10/0600Z 28.1N  90.5W    30 KT
 36HR VT     10/1800Z 30.6N  89.4W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     11/0600Z 32.5N  89.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     12/0600Z 35.5N  88.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Saturday, 09-Oct-2004 08:23:40 UTC