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Tropical Storm MATTHEW


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI OCT 08 2004
 
AN AIR FORCE PLANE CONTINUED TO CHECK MATTHEW AND FOUND A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 1000 MB AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 50 KNOTS. INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ASYMMETRIC AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST WEAKENING BUT BECAUSE MATTHEW DOES NOT
HAVE COMPLETE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...THE SHEAR COULD BE LESS
DETRIMENTAL. AT THIS TIME...NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED
PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT BEST ESTIMATE IS 060 DEGREES OR
EAST-NORTHEAST AT 8 KNOTS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS EVEN MORE
UNCERTAIN. MATTHEW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE
CYCLONE BETWEEN THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...GLOBAL
MODELS INSIST ON TURNING THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTH-NORTHEAST BUT THEY MAY BE REFLECTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER LOW OVER TEXAS. I AM NOT VERY CONFORTABLE TO BE AWAY FROM
GLOBAL MODELS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK BUT I WOULD RATHER
FOLLOW CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
 
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST EARLY SATURDAY.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0300Z 24.7N  93.4W    40 KT
 12HR VT     09/1200Z 25.5N  92.2W    40 KT
 24HR VT     10/0000Z 26.5N  90.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     10/1200Z 27.8N  89.0W    40 KT
 48HR VT     11/0000Z 29.5N  87.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     12/0000Z 33.6N  86.5W    20 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Saturday, 09-Oct-2004 02:43:44 UTC