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Hurricane LISA


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI OCT 01 2004
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES PEAKED AT 4.0 T NUMBERS AT 18Z AND HAVE
NOW DECREASED TO 3.5 T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...EVEN THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME ELEMENTS PRESENT OF AN EYE-TYPE FEATURE.  ALSO A 21Z
HI-RES QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 55 KNOTS.  SO THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 60 KNOTS.  WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
IS ALREADY SEEN TO BE IMPINGING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION.  SO WITH COLDER SSTS AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR
AHEAD...LISA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/16.  LISA IS EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
MOSTLY EASTWARD BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS.  THE GFS SUGGESTS
A MERGER BETWEEN LISA AND AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WHICH IS PROBABLY
THE REMNANT OF JEANNE WHILE THE UKMET KEEPS SEPARATE SYSTEMS.  IN
EITHER CASE...LISA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN
24 HOURS OR SO.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0300Z 39.6N  42.8W    60 KT
 12HR VT     02/1200Z 41.5N  39.5W    55 KT
 24HR VT     03/0000Z 44.2N  32.6W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     03/1200Z 45.6N  23.8W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     04/0000Z 46.5N  13.2W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     05/0000Z...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Saturday, 02-Oct-2004 02:23:51 UTC