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Tropical Storm LISA


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI OCT 01 2004
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LISA HAS A CONVECTIVE BAND
WRAPPED ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER...
SOMEWHAT OF AN INCREASE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...THE
WARM SPOT OR EYE FEATURE SEEN EARLIER IS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT
WITH TIME.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT...WHICH IS ABOVE
THE 45 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 010/10...AND OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO
LISA MAY BE MOVING EVEN MORE TO THE RIGHT.  THE STORM IS RECURVING
INTO THE WESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE REMAINS OF JEANNE...AND AN TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HR.  THEREAFTER...LISA SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT
IS ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED GUIDANCE SUITE.

LISA IS JUST ABOUT OUT OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN.  THE STORM IS NOW OVER
25C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THE WATER GETS COLDER ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK.  ADDITIONALLY...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE
AFTER 12 HR...AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING A FRONTAL ZONE
AFTER 24 HR.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING...WITH LISA
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 36-48 HR AND ABSORPTION BY
THE LARGER LOW BEFORE 72 HR.  THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT
LISA COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH THIS MORNING.  IF THIS
OCCURS...IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND NOT CHANGE THE EXPECTED OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0900Z 35.6N  47.4W    60 KT
 12HR VT     01/1800Z 37.6N  46.0W    55 KT
 24HR VT     02/0600Z 40.5N  42.5W    50 KT
 36HR VT     02/1800Z 43.4N  37.0W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     03/0600Z 46.0N  28.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     04/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 01-Oct-2004 08:33:40 UTC