ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2004 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE DAY. LISA CONSISTS OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 60 KNOTS. THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LISA TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHILE THE SHEAR IS LOW AND BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATER. LISA IS MOVING 350 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AROUND AN UPPER-LOW LOCATED TO ITS SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...LISA SHOULD THEN REACH THE WESTERLIES AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT LISA SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW...THE REMNANTS OF JEANNE...BY 96 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 30.9N 45.9W 60 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 32.5N 46.3W 65 KT 24HR VT 30/1800Z 34.0N 47.3W 65 KT 36HR VT 01/0600Z 36.0N 47.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 01/1800Z 38.0N 46.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 02/1800Z 42.0N 40.0W 45 KT...BECOMING ABSORBED 96HR VT 03/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 29-Sep-2004 20:33:36 UTC