Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm LISA


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2004
 
ALTHOUGH BANDING FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...LISA STILL
REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE BANDING EYE FEATURE OBSERVED
EARLIER TODAY HAS DISSAPEARED UNDER A STRONG BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. THE INCREASED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...
THE INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION...AND A 20/1547Z AQUA1
OVERPASS SHOWING A MID- AND LOW-LEVEL EYE FEATURE ARE MY REASONS
FOR REMAINING HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10.  THERE REMAINS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING.
LISA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SMALL CYCLONE MOVES
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN
LISA AND KARL. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS TO
REMAIN INTACT...DESPITE THE POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE CYCLONE BY
ALL OF THE MODELS EXCEPT FOR NOGAPS. HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS MODEL
APPEARS TO OVERDEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH ALLOWS IT TO
ERODE THE NARROW RIDGE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH IT. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE GFDL...GFDN...AND DEEP BAM MODELS MOVE LISA
WESTWARD FOR ABOUT 72 HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS A RIDGE
DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHWEST. UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO MORE
REASONABLE AGREEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS AND FOLLOWS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF ENOUGH
RIDGING KEEPING THE VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD...
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS SOME.
 
COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONES LIKE CAN STRENGTHEN FAIRLY QUICKLY...BUT
CAN ALSO WEAKEN JUST AS FAST. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OR LESS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...WHICH MAY
ALLOW LISA TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.
AFTERWARDS 36 HOURS...LOW TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT THE INTENSIFICATION
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS IF IT WAS WESTERLY
SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT
MUCH HIGHER THAN THE GFDL MODEL.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/2100Z 13.8N  36.8W    55 KT
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 14.1N  38.2W    65 KT
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 14.6N  39.9W    70 KT
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 15.2N  41.6W    75 KT
 48HR VT     22/1800Z 15.9N  43.2W    75 KT
 72HR VT     23/1800Z 16.7N  46.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     24/1800Z 17.0N  49.0W    75 KT
120HR VT     25/1800Z 17.0N  52.0W    75 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 20-Sep-2004 21:04:00 UTC