ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2004 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 30 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS MAINTAINING A SMALL BALL OF CONVECTION NEAR THE PRESUMED CENTER BUT HAS NO DISCERNABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN AT THIS TIME. INDEED...THE DEPRESSION IS CAUGHT BETWEEN HURRICANE KARL ABOUT 650 NM TO ITS WEST-NORTHWEST AND A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO ITS SOUTHEAST. THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET ALL MAKE THE DEPRESSION THE WEAKEST OF THESE THREE SYSTEMS WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE BRING THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...I AM RELUCTANT TO DO SO GIVEN THE COMPETING SYSTEMS IN ITS NEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND IT IS QUITE FOSSIBLE THIS DEPRESSION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10. FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDERNEATH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF KARL. AFTER THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AS THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE GIVING A WIDE VARIETY OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. THE GFS LOSES THE DEPRESSION IN THE DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE THE UKMET ENTRAINS IT INTO KARL. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL KEEPS THE DEPRESSION AND TAKES IT WEST AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST AS HEIGHTS BUILD IN AFTER KARL LIFTS OUT...WHILE THE BAM MODELS HAVE VARYING DEGREES OF A BEND TO THE RIGHT. CURRENTLY THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING FASTER THAN KARL...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF IT MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST ON KARL'S EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME INTERACTION...BUT THEN BENDS THE TRACK BACK TO THE WEST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT KARL WILL LEAVE THE DEPRESSION BEHIND. GIVEN THE VERY COMPLICATED ENVIRONMENT...THIS IS A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 13.5N 34.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 13.6N 36.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 14.1N 38.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 14.5N 39.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 22/0600Z 15.0N 41.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 23/0600Z 17.0N 45.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 24/0600Z 18.0N 48.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 25/0600Z 18.5N 51.0W 55 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 20-Sep-2004 08:33:23 UTC