ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/10. KARL IS MOVING SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE APPROACH OF A LARGE AND POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE COLD LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH A TRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE COLD LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE SMALL EYE PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES...INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL MAY BE STARTING TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 100 KT BASED ON DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM AFWA AND TAFB. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 16.3N 42.2W 100 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 16.9N 43.7W 100 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 17.7N 45.7W 105 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 18.7N 47.4W 110 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 20.0N 48.5W 115 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 24.0N 49.5W 110 KT 96HR VT 23/0600Z 29.5N 47.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 24/0600Z 37.5N 42.5W 90 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 19-Sep-2004 08:43:21 UTC