Hurricane KARL

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HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/10.  KARL IS MOVING SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE APPROACH OF A LARGE AND POWERFUL
MID-LATITUDE COLD LOW.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH A
TRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE COLD LOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...WITH THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE SMALL EYE PREVIOUSLY
OBSERVED.  ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE
PASSES...INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL MAY BE
STARTING TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 100 KT BASED ON DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM AFWA AND TAFB. 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
TO SUPPORT A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0900Z 16.3N  42.2W   100 KT
 12HR VT     19/1800Z 16.9N  43.7W   100 KT
 24HR VT     20/0600Z 17.7N  45.7W   105 KT
 36HR VT     20/1800Z 18.7N  47.4W   110 KT
 48HR VT     21/0600Z 20.0N  48.5W   115 KT
 72HR VT     22/0600Z 24.0N  49.5W   110 KT
 96HR VT     23/0600Z 29.5N  47.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     24/0600Z 37.5N  42.5W    90 KT
 
 
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