Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane KARL


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004

KARL HAS WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
DIRECTION AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING AT 290/10. THE FORECAST REASONING
IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
KARL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BE ERODED BY AN APPROACHING
AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. THIS WILL ALLOW
KARL TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ERODED RIDGE AND
THEN MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 4 OR 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102/102/90 KT FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 100 KT.  THIS MAKES KARL THE FIFTH
MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2004 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.  INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THAT THE EYE DIAMETER HAS GOTTEN
SMALLER DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS...SUGGESTING THAT THE STORM IS
STRENGTHENING...WHICH THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ABOVE CONFIRM.  A
2357Z MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO GAVE SUPPORTING EVIDENCE FOR
THIS...SHOWING A DOUBLE EYEWALL WITH THE INNER EYE JUST ABOUT TO
COLLAPSE AND DISAPPEAR.  THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE SCENARIO
REQUIRES THE WIND SPEED TO DECREASE AS THE OUTER EYE BECOMES
DOMINANT AND REPLACES THE DISAPPEARING INNER ONE.  THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT THE 12 HOUR TIME FRAME. 
SURPRISINGLY THE GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES HAVE THIS
SCENARIO...WHICH THE SHIPS DOES NOT.  BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS HAVE
KARL BACK TO MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY AT THE 12 TO 24 HOUR TIME
FRAME.  ADDITIONAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE POSSIBLE.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0300Z 16.2N  41.3W   100 KT
 12HR VT     19/1200Z 16.6N  42.8W    90 KT
 24HR VT     20/0000Z 17.4N  44.8W   105 KT
 36HR VT     20/1200Z 18.2N  46.7W   110 KT
 48HR VT     21/0000Z 19.3N  48.1W   115 KT
 72HR VT     22/0000Z 23.0N  49.4W   115 KT
 96HR VT     23/0000Z 28.0N  48.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     24/0000Z 34.0N  44.0W    85 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Sunday, 19-Sep-2004 02:43:25 UTC