ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004 THE FORECAST REASONING IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KARL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BE ERODED BY AN APPROACHING AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. THIS WILL ALLOW KARL TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ERODED RIDGE AND THEN MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 4 OR 5. ONLY THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102/90/90 KT FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT. KARL CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A SMALL WELL-DEFINED EYE...BANDING FEATURES AND OUTFLOW. THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS STABLE...BUT THE OUTER BANDING DEEP CONVECTION COMES AND GOES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL AND INCREASES THE WIND SPEED TO 115 KT IN 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND WEAKENING AFTER 72 HOURS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 15.9N 40.2W 95 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 16.7N 41.6W 105 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 17.6N 43.8W 110 KT 36HR VT 20/0600Z 18.4N 45.5W 115 KT 48HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 47.0W 115 KT 72HR VT 21/1800Z 22.5N 48.5W 110 KT 96HR VT 22/1800Z 27.0N 48.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 23/1800Z 33.0N 45.0W 85 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 18-Sep-2004 20:13:17 UTC