Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm KARL


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004
 
KARL HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AS OUTER
BANDING FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED. A 17/2148Z SSMI OVERPASS SUGGESTS
THAT KARL MAY POSSESS A VERY SMALL EYE...AND THIS WAS LATER
SUPPORTED BY A 17/2317Z TRMM OVERPASS. WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB...65 KT FROM SAB...AND 55 KT FROM
AFWA...I AM A LITTLE RELUCTANT TO DESIGNATE KARL AS A HURRICANE AT
THIS TIME DUE TO THE LACK OF PERSISTENT ORGANIZATION AND DEPTH OF
THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION...WHICH MAY BE DUE TO DRY AIR WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY BEING
INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTIVE TOPS
BEGIN COOLING AGAIN...THEN THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/12. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. KARL APPEARS TO BE MAKING A
LITTLE MORE OF A WESTWARD BEND...BUT IS BASICALLY ON TRACK. THE NHC
18Z GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED AND HAS MADE A SLIGHT
SWING TO THE LEFT. HOWEVER...THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHILE TIGHTLY
PACKED...HAS ALSO BEEN CONSISTENTLY WELL TO THE LEFT OF TRACK AND
DID NOT PICK UP THE JOG TO THE RIGHT EARLIER TODAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN
SURROUNDING KARL...SO THE FORECAST TRACK WAS NOT BROUGHT AS FAR TO
THE WEST AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. BY 72 HOURS...A STRONG HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
AND EASTERN CANADA AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG
RIDGING.  THE RESULT IS THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
KARL SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND ALLOW FOR MORE NORTHWARD MOTION.

KARL ALREADY HAS VERY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW AND...WHEN COMBINED WITH
THE TIGHT INNER-CORE WIND FIELD AND SSTS OF AT LEAST 28C...STEADY
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 96 HOURS IS EXPECTED... AND KARL COULD EVEN
BECOME THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON BY 72 HOURS. AFTER
96 HOURS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF THE DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO INITIATE WEAKENING.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0300Z 14.2N  37.4W    60 KT
 12HR VT     18/1200Z 15.0N  38.6W    65 KT
 24HR VT     19/0000Z 15.9N  40.2W    75 KT
 36HR VT     19/1200Z 16.9N  42.0W    85 KT
 48HR VT     20/0000Z 18.0N  43.5W    95 KT
 72HR VT     21/0000Z 20.5N  45.5W   100 KT
 96HR VT     22/0000Z 25.5N  47.0W   105 KT
120HR VT     23/0000Z 31.0N  46.5W    95 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 18-Sep-2004 02:53:38 UTC