ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004 WHILE KARL HAS A GOOD SKELETAL BANDING STRUCTURE THERE IS NOT MUCH MEAT ON THOSE BONES. THE BANDS...WHILE WELL DEFINED...ARE VERY THIN...AND THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 09Z SHOWED VERY LITTLE WIND FOR A SYSTEM WITH THIS KIND OF STRUCTURE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 KT TO 65 KT. I WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 55 KT BUT IT'S PROBABLY HIGH. REGARDLESS...KARL'S STRUCTURE AS WELL AS ITS ENVIRONMENT FAVORS SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. KARL HAS AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW PATTERN...WATERS WILL BE WARM AND THE SHEAR LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY THIS MORNING REQUIRES THAT KARL BE RELOCATED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9. KARL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO UNTIL IT ENCOUNTERS A SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT SHOULD RECURVE KARL BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS FASTER WITH THE NORTHWARD MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT IS STILL SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 12.3N 35.5W 55 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 12.9N 37.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 13.7N 38.6W 75 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 14.6N 40.3W 85 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 15.5N 41.5W 90 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 18.0N 44.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 45.5W 105 KT 120HR VT 22/1200Z 27.5N 45.5W 100 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 17-Sep-2004 14:33:21 UTC