Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm KARL


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004
 
WHILE KARL HAS A GOOD SKELETAL BANDING STRUCTURE THERE IS NOT MUCH
MEAT ON THOSE BONES.  THE BANDS...WHILE WELL DEFINED...ARE VERY
THIN...AND THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 09Z SHOWED VERY LITTLE WIND FOR A
SYSTEM WITH THIS KIND OF STRUCTURE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 45 KT TO 65 KT.  I WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
INTENSITY OF 55 KT BUT IT'S PROBABLY HIGH.  REGARDLESS...KARL'S
STRUCTURE AS WELL AS ITS ENVIRONMENT FAVORS SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING.  KARL HAS AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW PATTERN...WATERS WILL
BE WARM AND THE SHEAR LOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY THIS MORNING REQUIRES THAT KARL BE
RELOCATED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS
290/9.  KARL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO UNTIL IT ENCOUNTERS A SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT SHOULD RECURVE KARL BY LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS FASTER WITH THE NORTHWARD
MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT IS STILL SLOWER
THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/1500Z 12.3N  35.5W    55 KT
 12HR VT     18/0000Z 12.9N  37.0W    65 KT
 24HR VT     18/1200Z 13.7N  38.6W    75 KT
 36HR VT     19/0000Z 14.6N  40.3W    85 KT
 48HR VT     19/1200Z 15.5N  41.5W    90 KT
 72HR VT     20/1200Z 18.0N  44.0W   100 KT
 96HR VT     21/1200Z 21.5N  45.5W   105 KT
120HR VT     22/1200Z 27.5N  45.5W   100 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 17-Sep-2004 14:33:21 UTC