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Hurricane JEANNE (Text)

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HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004
 
THIS AFETRNOON...A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
JEANNE REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 967 MB...BUT AN 850 MB FLIGHT
-LEVEL WIND OF ONLY 95 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT A 76-KT SURFACE WIND...
WHERE A SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 78 KT WAS REPORTED IN THE SAME WESTERN
QUADRANT. HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 85 KT
GIVEN THAT STRONGER WINDS COULD BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE 
CENTRAL PRESSURE WOULD ALSO TYPICALLY SUPPORT ABOUT 104 KT SURFACE
WINDS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0...OR 90 KT...FROM TAFB
AND SAB ALSO SUPPORT KEEPING THE INTENSITY HIGHER. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 240/4.  A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...MAINLY AFTER 72 HOURS. ALL OF THE
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MADE A MAJOR WESTWARD SHIFT. THIS IS DUE TO
THE LARGE HIGH/RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND MID-ATLANTIC
STATES FORECAST TO MOVE MORE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. IN FACT...SOME OF THE MODELS LIKE NOGAPS AND
THE GFDN ACTUALLY ELONGATE THE RIDGE MORE EAST-WEST THAN MOVING IT
EASTWARD. THE RESULT IS THAT JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 72-96 HOURS...BEFORE IT RECURVES TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL
MOVES JEANNE INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...SIMILAR TO THE
TRACK OF FRANCES. WHILE THE NOGAPS SOLUTION IS A POSSIBILITY...THE
NHC MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON JEANNE REMAINING
OFFSHORE THE U.S. COAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE MORE WESTERLY FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE
HURRICANE VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS IN 60-72 HOURS.

WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ONLY BE AROUND 10 KT FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...THE PRESENCE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR SURROUNDING THE
CYCLONE MAY PREVENT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING FROM OCCURRING. BY 72
HOURS...THOUGH...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5
KT AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE...SO THERE COULD
BE SOME SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OCCUR AT THAT TIME. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS...
AND THEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN SHIPS DUE TO JEANNE POSSIBLY MOVING
DIRECTLY OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SIMILAR TO WHAT ALEX DID EARLIER
THIS YEAR. HOWEVER...IF JEANNE MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...THEN
IT WOULD BE OVER MUCH COOLER SHELF WATER OF 76-79F...AND THAT WOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN A MUCH WEAKER CYCLONE.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/2100Z 26.1N  69.0W    85 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 25.9N  69.7W    85 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 25.9N  70.8W    90 KT
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 26.1N  72.2W    90 KT
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 26.5N  74.1W    95 KT
 72HR VT     25/1800Z 28.0N  78.0W    95 KT
 96HR VT     26/1800Z 30.5N  79.5W    85 KT
120HR VT     27/1800Z 33.5N  78.0W    75 KT
 
 
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