ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE JEANNE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST RECON FLIGHT EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD COVERED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A CONSENSUS T4.5...OR 77KT ...FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY REMAINS 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 105/06. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS...INDICATES JEANNE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TURN SOUTHEAST AND EVEN SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS A DEEP-LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THIS ALREADY APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF JEANNE...THAT IS ACCELERATING HURRICANE KARL NORTHWARD...HAS BEEN PUSHING EASTWARD. BEHIND THE TROUGH...THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME NORTHERLY...ALBEIT STRONGLY DIFLUENT. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ACT TO STEER JEANNE SOUTHWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO... FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE HIGH/RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THAT WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE GUNS CONSENSUS...SINCE THE GFS REMAINS AN EASTERN OUTLIER MODEL. THE UKMET...GFDL...AND DEEP BAM MODELS ARE FASTER THAN AND MORE TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...BUT I WOULD PREFER TO WAIT UNTIL THE 12Z MODELS...CONTAINING NEW UPPER-AIR DATA...COME IN BEFORE MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT TRACK CHANGES. THE VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS JEANNE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE 36-48 HOURS PERIOD...SO SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. AFTERWARDS...INCREASING SHEAR FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE SHOULD BRING ABOUT GRADUAL WEAKENING. HOWEVER...IF JEANNE MOVES FASTER AND FARTHER WEST LIKE SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING...THEN JEANNE WILL WEAKEN EVEN MORE THAN INDICATED SINCE THE CYCLONE WOULD ENCOUNTER GREATER SHEAR DUE TO 45-55 KT 200 MB WINDS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 27.5N 69.3W 80 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 27.1N 69.2W 80 KT 24HR VT 22/1200Z 26.6N 69.4W 80 KT 36HR VT 23/0000Z 26.4N 69.9W 85 KT 48HR VT 23/1200Z 26.4N 70.7W 85 KT 72HR VT 24/1200Z 26.8N 72.0W 85 KT 96HR VT 25/1200Z 27.5N 73.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 26/1200Z 29.5N 74.5W 65 KT $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Sep-2004 14:54:00 UTC