Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane JEANNE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE JEANNE HAS
CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST RECON FLIGHT EARLIER THIS MORNING.
THE RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD COVERED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS
AND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A CONSENSUS T4.5...OR 77KT
...FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY REMAINS 80 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 105/06.  THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. ALL OF THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS...INDICATES JEANNE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TURN SOUTHEAST AND EVEN SOUTHWARD DURING THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS A DEEP-LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS TO
THE NORTH. THIS ALREADY APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY AS WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF JEANNE...THAT
IS ACCELERATING HURRICANE KARL NORTHWARD...HAS BEEN PUSHING
EASTWARD. BEHIND THE TROUGH...THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW HAS
BECOME NORTHERLY...ALBEIT STRONGLY DIFLUENT. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ACT TO STEER JEANNE SOUTHWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE
HIGH/RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH ABOUT 72
HOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THAT WHICH IS SIMILAR TO
THE GUNS CONSENSUS...SINCE THE GFS REMAINS AN EASTERN OUTLIER
MODEL. THE UKMET...GFDL...AND DEEP BAM MODELS ARE FASTER THAN AND
MORE TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...BUT I WOULD PREFER TO WAIT
UNTIL THE 12Z MODELS...CONTAINING NEW UPPER-AIR DATA...COME IN
BEFORE MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT TRACK CHANGES.
 
THE VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS JEANNE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN
10 KT IN THE 36-48 HOURS PERIOD...SO SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. AFTERWARDS...INCREASING SHEAR
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE SHOULD BRING ABOUT GRADUAL WEAKENING.
HOWEVER...IF JEANNE MOVES FASTER AND FARTHER WEST LIKE SOME OF THE
MODELS ARE INDICATING...THEN JEANNE WILL WEAKEN EVEN MORE THAN
INDICATED SINCE THE CYCLONE WOULD ENCOUNTER GREATER SHEAR DUE TO
45-55 KT 200 MB WINDS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/1500Z 27.5N  69.3W    80 KT
 12HR VT     22/0000Z 27.1N  69.2W    80 KT
 24HR VT     22/1200Z 26.6N  69.4W    80 KT
 36HR VT     23/0000Z 26.4N  69.9W    85 KT
 48HR VT     23/1200Z 26.4N  70.7W    85 KT
 72HR VT     24/1200Z 26.8N  72.0W    85 KT
 96HR VT     25/1200Z 27.5N  73.5W    75 KT
120HR VT     26/1200Z 29.5N  74.5W    65 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Sep-2004 14:54:00 UTC