Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane JEANNE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2004
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 090/02. JEANNE HAS TURNED TOWARD
THE EAST AND IS BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN AS FORECAST BY THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS AND THE GFS-BASED BAM MODELS. THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING THAT THE BASIC STEERING FLOW
WOULD COLLAPSE AS A DEEP TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE MOVES
EASTWARD AND PICKS UP HURRICANE KARL WHILE LEAVING JEANNE BEHIND. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF JEANNE AND
BLOCK ANY SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD MOTION UNTIL ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES
IN AND REPLACES THE RIDGE IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND MAINTAINS THE SMALL
ANTICYCLONIC LOOP IN THE FORECAST AFTER 72 HOURS...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

JEANNE APPEARS TO BE IN A QUASI-STEADY STATE AS FAR AS THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS CONCERNED...NOT HAVING A COMPLETE CLOSED EYE. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AGAIN 55 KTS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...ALSO
SUGGESTING LITTLE CHANGE.  HOWEVER OUR CURRENT INTENSITY IS AN
EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS RECON WHICH WAS 75 KTS.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 75 KTS.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY AND THAT GUIDANCE IS THE BASIS FOR THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0300Z 27.4N  70.6W    75 KT
 12HR VT     21/1200Z 27.4N  70.1W    80 KT
 24HR VT     22/0000Z 27.3N  69.5W    80 KT
 36HR VT     22/1200Z 26.7N  69.4W    80 KT
 48HR VT     23/0000Z 26.3N  69.7W    85 KT
 72HR VT     24/0000Z 26.5N  70.2W    85 KT
 96HR VT     25/0000Z 27.3N  70.1W    75 KT
120HR VT     26/0000Z 28.0N  69.0W    60 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Sep-2004 03:13:27 UTC