Hurricane JEANNE

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TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004
 
A NOAA AIRCRAFT IS IN THE STORM AND REPORTS STEP FREQUENCY MICROWAVE
RADIOMETER SURFACE WINDS NEAR 45 KT ALONG WITH 996 MB CENTRAL
PRESSURE.  THE ADVISORY INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 45 KT. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW AND BANDING.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BRING JEANNE TO A
HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH NOT AS AGGRESSIVELY AS THE GUIDANCE.  THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO
SHOWS SOME RATHER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING JEANNE IN 36
HOURS...SO WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/07.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT A SLOW NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR 48 HOURS
INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A HUGE LOW
MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  AFTER THAT...JEANNE
GETS FAIRLY CLOSE TO KARL AND THEY COULD INTERACT.  IN ANY CASE...A
VERY SLOW MOTION IS INDICATED AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS
SHOWING A SLOW GENERALLY EASTWARD MOTION.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/2100Z 24.5N  72.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 25.5N  72.0W    50 KT
 24HR VT     20/1800Z 26.7N  71.2W    55 KT
 36HR VT     21/0600Z 27.3N  70.2W    60 KT
 48HR VT     21/1800Z 27.2N  69.1W    65 KT
 72HR VT     22/1800Z 26.5N  68.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     23/1800Z 26.5N  68.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     24/1800Z 27.0N  67.5W    65 KT
 
 
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