Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane JEANNE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/7 AS JEANNE CONTINUES TO EDGE INLAND OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  DESPITE ITS TREK OVER
LAND...IT HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED EYE VISIBLE ON THE
SAN JUAN NWS RADAR WITH EXCELLENT BANDING FEATURES.  CLOUD TOPS
HAVE WARMED HOWEVER...AND IT IS PRESUMED THAT THE WINDS HAVE
DROPPED JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.

THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
RIGHT-LEANING GFS AND LEFT-LEANING GFDL MODELS.  THIS
AFTERNOON...THE GFS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND THE GFDL SHIFTED
EASTWARD...SIGNIFICANTLY NARROWING THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING
THAT THE REMNANTS OF IVAN WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST TO DEFLECT JEANNE'S TRACK TO THE RIGHT IN 2-3 DAYS. 
HOWEVER...BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. IN ABOUT 5 DAYS
ARE EXPECTE TO PREVENT JEANNE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA.  WITH THE
FIVE DAY FORECAST POINT NEAR THE U.S. COASTLINE...THIS MIGHT BE A
GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT THE AVERAGE FIVE DAY NHC OFFICIAL
FORECAST ERROR IS ABOUT 375 MILES...IN OTHER WORDS...IT IS STILL
TOO SOON TO BE SURE WHAT PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES MIGHT BE
AFFECTED BY JEANNE.
 
THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT AROUND JEAN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A HIGHLY
DIVERGENT FLOW THAT WOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING AFTER JEANNE CLEARS
HISPANIOLA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND
GFDL GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 19.0N  69.3W    60 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 19.5N  70.7W    50 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 20.4N  72.3W    50 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 21.4N  73.9W    60 KT
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 22.5N  75.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 25.0N  77.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 28.5N  78.5W    80 KT
120HR VT     21/1800Z 32.0N  80.5W    80 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 16-Sep-2004 20:43:19 UTC