ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON SEP 06 2004 A SMALL EYE IS EVIDENT ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY. THERE IS A SMALL CDO AND SOMEWHAT RAGGED-LOOKING BANDING FEATURES. ESTIMATES OF THE DATA T-NUMBER RANGE FROM 4.5 TO 5.5 SO THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT INTENSITY. SINCE THE HURRICANE APPEARED TO BE SO INTENSE LAST NIGHT...WE ARE HOLDING THE WIND SPEED AT 110 KT IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK RULES. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE IVAN AROUND 18Z AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A MUCH BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS HURRICANE. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SLIGHT WESTERLY SHEAR IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF IVAN...PROBABLY DUE TO A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER THAT MODEL ALSO SHOWS INTENSIFICATION OF IVAN. SINCE THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY HIGH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO INDICATES INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY PREDICTION AT DAYS 4 AND 5 HAS THE ADDED UNCERTAINTY OF HOW IVAN WILL INTERACT WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST...280/19. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSPHY. IVAN IS EMBEDDED IN A WELL-DEFINED EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT AND SHOULD REMAIN SO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITIONS OF A RIDGE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. IT IS STILL TO EARLY TO CONFIDENTLY PREDICT WHETHER IVAN WILL BE SOUTH OF...OVER...OR NORTH OF CUBA AROUND 5 DAYS. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE RUN IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK BEYOND 3 DAYS. HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SEVERAL OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 11.2N 53.4W 110 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 11.8N 56.1W 115 KT 24HR VT 07/1200Z 12.7N 59.5W 115 KT 36HR VT 08/0000Z 13.7N 62.7W 120 KT 48HR VT 08/1200Z 15.0N 65.5W 125 KT 72HR VT 09/1200Z 17.5N 71.0W 125 KT 96HR VT 10/1200Z 20.5N 75.0W 75 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 11/1200Z 23.5N 78.5W 90 KT...OVER WATER $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 06-Sep-2004 14:52:56 UTC