ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004 IVAN IS STRENGTHENING RATHER RAPIDLY AT THIS TIME. THE EYE IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AT LEAST 75 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY. THIS MAKES IVAN THE STRONGEST TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR SUCH A LOW LATITUDE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN RECORDS. CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER ALL QUADRANTS OF THE HURRICANE. ALL PARAMETERS SEEM TO BE IN PLACE FOR IVAN TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING...AND THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS WILL BECOME THE SEASON'S FOURTH MAJOR HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND IT MAY BE CONSERVATIVE. THE MOTION CONTINUES AT ABOUT 280/18...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE EVEN FASTER. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. IVAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...A REGIME THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS AND WHICH WOULD STEER THE HURRICANE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THAT TIME SPAN. IN THE 4-5 DAY TIME FRAME...THERE IS OF COURSE MORE UNCERTAINTY...AND WHERE IVAN WINDS UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH BY THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IN EVEN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS THAT EXCLUDES THE GFS...I.E. GUNS. THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN SHOWING A REALISTIC SOLUTION SINCE IT WEAKENS IVAN INTO A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND IN IVAN'S INTENSITY...SUCH A SCENARIO DOES NOT SEEM VERY LIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS THAT COVERED THE CIRCULATION OF IVAN. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 9.9N 46.0W 75 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 10.6N 48.7W 80 KT 24HR VT 06/1200Z 11.5N 52.3W 85 KT 36HR VT 07/0000Z 12.4N 55.9W 90 KT 48HR VT 07/1200Z 13.3N 59.4W 95 KT 72HR VT 08/1200Z 15.0N 65.5W 105 KT 96HR VT 09/1200Z 17.5N 71.0W 110 KT 120HR VT 10/1200Z 20.5N 75.0W 70 KT...INLAND $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 05-Sep-2004 14:32:52 UTC