Tropical Storm IVAN

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TROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004
 
SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THAT IVAN HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED.  THERE IS A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT WRAPS
PRACTICALLY ALL THE WAY AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER...WHICH USING THE
DVORAK TECHNIQUE GIVES A DATA T NUMBER OF 3.5 OR 55 KT FOR THE
CURRENT INTENSITY.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IVAN WILL
REMAIN IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
SO...CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY.

A SWIFT...MOSTLY WESTWARD...MOTION CONTINUES.  THERE ARE NO
IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING BEHIND THE TRACK
FORECAST SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  A STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THEREFORE ONLY A
GENTLE BEND TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST...WITHOUT MUCH DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

BECAUSE OF THE TYPICAL TRACK FORECAST ERRORS AT 5 DAYS...THE CENTER
COULD EASILY PASS SOUTH...OR NORTH...OF THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA. 

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z  9.1N  40.8W    50 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z  9.7N  43.3W    60 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 10.4N  46.6W    65 KT
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 11.4N  49.8W    70 KT
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 12.3N  53.0W    75 KT
 72HR VT     07/1800Z 14.0N  59.5W    85 KT
 96HR VT     08/1800Z 16.0N  65.5W    95 KT
120HR VT     09/1800Z 18.5N  70.5W    95 KT...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA

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