Tropical Storm IVAN

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TROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004

THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH SOME
BANDING FEATURES...AND CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 40 KT...ABOUT THE
AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  THERE
IS MODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...BUT THIS IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE MUCH OF A HINDERANCE TO STRENGTHENING.  THEREFORE THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS PACKAGE IS A LITTLE FASTER...
260/16.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE STEERING PATTERN.  IVAN IS
EMBEDDED IN A WELL-DEFINED EASTERLY CURRENT TO THE SOUTH OF A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS REGIME
WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS ONLY A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND
VERY CLOSE TO THE GUNA CONSENSUS.  THE GFS AND GFDL TRACKS ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/1500Z  9.6N  32.9W    40 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z  9.7N  35.5W    50 KT
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 10.0N  38.7W    55 KT
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 10.3N  42.0W    60 KT
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 10.5N  45.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     06/1200Z 11.5N  51.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     07/1200Z 13.0N  57.0W    80 KT
120HR VT     08/1200Z 14.5N  63.0W    90 KT
 
 
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