Tropical Depression SEVEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004
 
SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHEST WINDS REMAIN NEAR 25 KT. 
HOWEVER THE CLOUD PATTERN IS RATHER SYMMETRIC WITH SOME BANDING AND
A LATELY INCREASING BUT NOT TOO WELL ORGANIZED AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION.  WITH LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS...THE SHIPS AND
GFDL MODELS CALL FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS FOR THE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 40 KT IN 36 HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND.  THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER
THAN THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH FORECASTS THE WINDS TO 52 KT BEFORE
LANDFALL AND A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE GFDL MODEL.

THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OR
ON THE CHARLESTON OR WILMINGTON RADARS.  THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE AT 00Z IS AN UNCERTAIN 150/02 AND AN UNCERTAIN 180/02 AT
03Z.  THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A
CONTINUED VERY SLOW MOTION FOR A DAY OR TWO WHILE THE SYSTEM
GRADUALLY TURNS WESTWARD TO NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE
WESTERLIES.  AN ACCELERATION NORTHEASTWARD IS INDICATED AFTER 48
HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN GENERAL SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT THAT THE LANDFALL TIMING IS A LITTLE
SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0300Z 31.3N  78.0W    25 KT
 12HR VT     28/1200Z 31.2N  78.3W    30 KT
 24HR VT     29/0000Z 31.6N  78.9W    35 KT
 36HR VT     29/1200Z 32.7N  79.3W    40 KT
 48HR VT     30/0000Z 33.8N  78.9W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     31/0000Z 36.0N  77.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     01/0000Z 39.0N  72.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     02/0000Z 42.0N  62.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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