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Tropical Depression SEVEN (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004
 
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATONS...ALONG WITH WSR-88D DATA FROM
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA...INDICATE
THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS DEVELOPED INTO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN.

THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY SINCE STEERING CURRENTS
ARE QUITE WEAK. HOWEVER...A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF TD-7
IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
U.S. IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AND ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD. BY
96 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE CAPTURED BY THE TROUGH AND
CARRIED OUT TO SEA AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS
MODELS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO POINT OUT THAT WHILE THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION.

THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IS SHOWING
GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.  THUS...
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY 24
HR AND REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KT AT LANDFALL.  THERE IS A
CHANCE THE SYSTEM COULD GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF IT STAYS
OFFSHORE LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. 
 
FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/2100Z 31.6N  78.1W    25 KT
 12HR VT     28/0600Z 31.5N  78.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     28/1800Z 32.0N  79.5W    35 KT
 36HR VT     29/0600Z 32.8N  80.0W    40 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     29/1800Z 33.7N  79.4W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     30/1800Z 35.1N  77.7W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     31/1800Z 39.0N  74.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT     01/1800Z 42.0N  64.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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