Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane FRANCES


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  50
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 06 2004
 
NOW THAT FRANCES HAS MOVED OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO...THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY HAS STEADILY INCREASED NEAR
THE TIGHT CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE LAST
RECON REPORT AT AROUND 05Z INDICATED A RAGGED EYE WAS TRYING TO
FORM...WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED IN DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM
TALLAHASSEE AND TAMPA. THE BANDING FEATURES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS BASED ON RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND
CONVERSIONS AND A DROPSONDE REPORT TO THE NORTHWEST.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10 BASED ON RADAR AND RECON
OBSERVATIONS.  THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON FRANCES
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS EAST-WEST ALONG 32N LATITUDE.
THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE IN THE MDOELS IS HOW SHARP OF A TURN FRANCES
WILL MAKE UPON REACHING 32N. THE GFS APPEARS TO MAKE TOO SHARP OF A
NORTHEASTWARD TURN GIVEN THE CURRENT LARGE DIAMETER OF FRANCES. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS
CLOSE THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
NOW THAT THE CENTER OF FRANCES IS BACK OVER WARM WATER...SOME
RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 83-84F
AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS STILL QUITE IMPRESSIVE. FRANCES COULD
REACH MINIMAL CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE STRENGTH JUST AS IT MAKES
LANDFALL IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE GIVEN THE
TIGHTER INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
AND THE RELATIVELY LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 981 MB...WHICH IS
TYPICAL OF A 75-KT HURRICANE.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0900Z 28.7N  83.5W    55 KT
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 29.9N  84.8W    65 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 31.2N  85.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 32.4N  85.8W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 33.9N  85.6W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     09/0600Z 37.8N  83.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     10/0600Z 42.5N  78.0W    20 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     11/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 06-Sep-2004 09:02:50 UTC