Hurricane FRANCES

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TROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004
 
FRANCES IS MAINTAINING WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER A LARGE AREA.  A 56-KT SUSTAINED
WIND OBSERVATION FROM THE ST AUGUSTINE C-MAN AT 22Z SUGGESTS THAT
MAXIMUM WINDS MAY STILL BE NEAR 55 KT.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
ALSO STAYED RATHER LOW AND IS ESTIMATED AT 976 MB BASED ON A 977.7
MB OBSERVATION NEAR TAMPA.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/07 BASED ON RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.  THE GLOBAL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT
ON A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND CONTINUED SLOW FORWARD SPEED
THROUGH 48 HOURS AS A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES ERODES THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF FRANCES.  ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FOLLOWS
AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE STORM IS CAUGHT UP AND ABSORBED WITHIN THE
WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
FORECAST.
 
THE CENTER IS NEAR THE COAST JUST NORTH OF TAMPA.  THE FORECAST
TRACK MOVES FRANCES OVER THE WATER OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF ON
MONDAY AND THEN INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY 24 HOURS.
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR FRANCES REACHING
HURRICANE FORCE OVER THE WATER...BUT THE OFFICAL FORECAST IS TO 65
KT IN 24 HOURS AS A COURSE OF LEAST REGRET.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0300Z 28.3N  82.7W    55 KT
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 28.8N  83.7W    60 KT...OVER WATER
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 30.0N  85.0W    65 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 31.6N  85.6W    35 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     08/0000Z 33.0N  85.7W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     09/0000Z 37.0N  84.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     10/0000Z 41.5N  79.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     11/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT
 
 
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