Hurricane FRANCES

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TROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004
 
RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION OF FRANCES CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE WEAKENING. ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE
REMAINS QUITE LOW...975 MB... THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
DECREASED TO 60 KNOTS. FRANCES IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 9 KNOTS AND THEN EMERGE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT. BECAUSE FRANCES HAS
MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED CLOUD STRUCTURE ON RADAR AND SHOULD BE
OVER WATER FOR 12 HOURS OR SO...IT COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS
AGAIN BEFORE MOVING INLAND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/2100Z 28.0N  82.2W    60 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 28.5N  83.5W    65 KT...OVER WATER
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 29.7N  85.0W    65 KT...MOVING INLAND
 36HR VT     07/0600Z 31.5N  86.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     07/1800Z 32.5N  86.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     08/1800Z 36.0N  85.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     09/1800Z 39.5N  81.5W    10 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     10/1800Z...INLAND
 
 
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