ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004 FRANCES APPEARS TO BE IN A STEADY STATE...WITH CENTRAL PRESSURES REMAINING NEAR 960 MB. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 97 KT...AND A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT NEAR 03Z REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 90 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 90 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL WESTERLY SHEAR IS STILL PRESENT...ALTHOUGH THE INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS PERHAPS BECOME A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A LESSENING OF THIS SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SO THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL...PARTICULARLY IF THE FORWARD SPEED INCREASES A BIT. FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY TWO/THREE UNTIL LANDFALL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/5. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING. A MID-LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE FRANCES BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST PRIOR TO LANDFALL AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AFTER 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...AND IS NEAR THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 26.6N 78.1W 90 KT 12HR VT 04/1800Z 27.0N 78.8W 90 KT 24HR VT 05/0600Z 27.5N 80.3W 95 KT...NEAR FL COASTLINE 36HR VT 05/1800Z 28.2N 82.0W 55 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 06/0600Z 29.0N 84.0W 45 KT...OVER GULF OF MEXICO 72HR VT 07/0600Z 32.0N 87.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 08/0600Z 35.5N 88.0W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 09/0600Z 39.5N 87.0W 20 KT...INLAND $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 04-Sep-2004 08:52:47 UTC